• Who Is To Blame?

    As the true scale and nature of the global crisis becomes apparent, the blame game is under way with a vengeance. Not surprisingly, those who find that it is their jobs and homes that are now at risk are keen to identify those who can be held responsible.

    It isn’t just those – like Bernard Madoff – who have now been unmasked as criminal fraudsters that they have in mind. They want to dig deeper for answers to the question reportedly put by the Queen – why did no one see it coming?

    Politicians, as usual and with some justice, are the first in the firing line. Even those, like the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, who have apparently experienced an overnight conversion to policies they had scorned for 25 years, do not seem to have earned forgiveness for their recantation. And If George W. Bush were still in office, one shudders to think how low his already abysmal approval rating would have fallen by now.

    Internationally, much of the anger felt by ordinary citizens is of course directed at the banks and at the unbelievable stupidity and greed shown by senior executives who are still paying themselves huge bonuses and pensions at the same time as receiving billions of taxpayer dollars to save their institutions from bankruptcy.

    Economists, too, or at least some of them, are being held accountable for propagating and endorsing doctrines which even Alan Greenspan now says were fatally flawed. Accountants who failed to audit, and lawyers who turned blind eyes, also come in for their share of bitter criticism.

    One group, however, who have so far escaped relatively unscathed are the media. In a democracy, as the media themselves frequently tell us, we should be able to rely on reporters and commentators to ferret out wrongdoing and to warn about unsafe and destructive policies and practices. So, where were the media over thirty years, while the excesses and stupidities of an unregulated market moved to their inevitable conclusion?

    There have been honourable exceptions, of course, but the media have too often been the loudest voices in support of the whole ramshackle structure of greed and irresponsibility that has now come crashing down. We can only conclude that they have been so keen to promote their own prejudices – or at least those of their owners – that they have allowed judgment to fly out the window.

    One of the most prominent cheerleaders has been The Economist – a weekly journal enjoying an enviable reputation for sound judgment and insightful commentary. Yet, for The Economist, no reward has been too great, no excess too outrageous, as long as it was ordained by the “free” market.

    The broadcast media have been just as bad. CNBC, a business channel claiming to be the only channel “with the information and experience you need”, has gone one better – or worse. Its so-called “experts” advised investors to trust – in turn – Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and General Motors just weeks and months before they demanded billions from taxpayers as the price for staying afloat.

    Little wonder that, with “expert” advice like this, the ordinary investor was led astray. But the failure of the media was more often of the “head-in-the-sand” variety, offering assurance that the authorities had everything under control. Add to that the constant treatment of the rich as demi-gods who could do no wrong and we can begin to see the responsibility that the media must bear for the failure to sound the alarm.

    And they are still at it. We were treated a week ago to an article in the Asian edition of The Wall Street Journal, reporting an interview with our Prime Minister, John Key, conducted by one Mary Kissell. Ms Kissell was given generous air-time by our broadcast media and was widely reported in our press. The Prime Minister cannot be held responsible for the views of his interviewer but he may have jibbed a little at the cold water she poured on the efforts made by governments around the world to restore a broken financial system and to help the global economy re-establish a level of demand that had dropped like a stone.

    The value of Ms Kissell’s views may be judged by the potted history she gave her readers of New Zealand’s recent economic history. Our “island nation”, we were told, “grew smartly” following the “reforms” of Rogernomics. Growth had, however, stagnated in the last nine years when “free” market policies were not maintained.

    Even a cursory examination of our GDP statistics would reveal what a gross misrepresentation this is. New Zealand GDP growth was virtually non-existent in the seven years following 1984, and reached its highest sustained level from 1999 to 2008. Where were the New Zealand commentators who could surely have pointed this out, and judged the Wall Street Journal article for what it was – a piece of special pleading by a mouthpiece for institutions that had been thoroughly discredited by recent events?

    Bryan Gould

    13 March 2009

  • Not In My Name

    Those, like me (and almost everyone I know in the Labour Party), who have been critical over the years of New Labour and its record in government might have expected that the passage of time would bring with it a kinder judgment. And in my case, in particular, it might have been thought that – twelve thousand miles away – distance would lend enchantment.

    How, then, to explain that the more we take the long view of the Blair and now the Brown government, the sharper seem the contours of its failures and betrayals? How is it that the features of its landscape that grow – as our perspective lengthens – in shocking, anger-making prominence are those shameful episodes at home and abroad which cumulatively are a complete denial of what a Labour government (or any British government) should have been about?

    There have been of course many good and decent day-by-day achievements of this government. Across the whole range of political issues, I do not say that Britain did not do better under Labour than it would have done under most alternatives. But these achievements have been molehills, judged against the towering peaks scaled by New Labour in its rejection not only of Labour, but of any decent and civilised values.

    The first – and for that reason perhaps most unexpected – contravention of civilised norms was the Iraq war. The damning judgment of that doomed enterprise has been repeatedly rehearsed, but to read the charge sheet again is still a shocking experience. A British Prime Minister, claiming the right to moral leadership and an almost religious duty to confront evil, sucked up to a soon-to-be discredited US President and helped to launch an invasion of a distant country – an invasion based upon a lie, and one that flew in the face of international law, undermined the United Nations, alienated the whole of the Muslim world, seemed to validate the claims of terrorists and those who recruited them, destroyed the country that was invaded and killed hundreds of thousands of its citizens, took many young soldiers to unnecessary deaths, and rightly reduced Britain’s standing in the world.

    The New Labour government still refuses to acknowledge that any of this was wrong. It will not even countenance an independent inquiry into how such a fatal mistake was made.

    It may seem improbable that the scale of the Iraq calamity could be matched in any other area of government. Yet, as the reasons for and scale of the global recession become clear, it is also increasingly apparent that another global (as well as British) disaster can be laid – substantially if only partly – at the door of the New Labour government.

    It was, after all, that government which enthusiastically endorsed the virtues of the “free” market, which turned its back on the need for regulation, which celebrated the excesses of the City, which proclaimed that it was “intensely relaxed about people becoming filthy rich”. The government that should have protected the interests of ordinary people was dazzled by the super-rich; unsuspecting Labour supporters found themselves thrown on the tender mercies of a market-place that was cleared of any limits that might have restricted the rich and powerful. There have been no more enthusiastic cheer-leaders for the culture of greed and excess than New Labour ministers.

    On the central issue of politics – the willingness of government to use its democratic legitimacy to intervene in the market in order to restrain its excesses – the New Labour government ensured that the dice lay where they fell and applauded as they did. It was Tony Blair who, standing shoulder to shoulder with Rupert Murdoch, proclaimed that the future lay with the “globalisers” and that those who wanted to reclaim some control over their lives were “Isolationists, nationalists and nativists”. It was Gordon Brown who removed the major economic decisions from democratic control and handed them over to unaccountable bankers.

    That betrayal of those who looked to a Labour government to help them has seen a rapid widening of inequality and a sharp intensification of social disintegration. It is the jobs, homes and lives of ordinary people that have borne the brunt. The country is a weaker and poorer place as a result.

    But even that failure pales by comparison with the latest revelations about the abandonment by New Labour of any pretence to civilised standards. We now know that this government connived with the Bush administration to hold people illegally, to kidnap them in secret, and to torture them while in custody – all in the name of a war against the forces of darkness. The perpetrators of these outrages seem to believe that they can be washed clean by simply declaring their superior morality.

    Nothing more clearly distinguishes those beyond the pale than their willingness to use the secret, illegal and cowardly infliction of pain to terrify, cow and bend to their will helpless people being held without charge or trial or legal redress. It beggars belief that any British government could, in a supposed democracy, do so, and not even bother to respond to its critics. It is simply incredible that a Labour government claiming to represent the values of the Labour movement could believe in these circumstances that it has any right to remain in office.

    For me, this is too much. I am sick to the stomach. I disown this so-called Labour government. I protest.

    Bryan Gould

    20 February 2009

    This article was published in the online Guardian on 22 February.

  • Treasury Must Look Past Interest Rates To Boost Economy

    As the participants prepare for the “jobs summit” this week, they will be hoping for a strong lead from Treasury and the Reserve Bank as to the way ahead. But, on the evidence so far, our policy-makers are floundering. After trying and failing to use monetary policy to grapple with our own home-grown recession throughout 2008, they now have to meet the new challenge of a world that has changed dramatically and to do so with a monetary policy instrument that now seems even less relevant.

    What, after all, is now the goal of monetary policy? For decades, we have been told that inflation is all that matters and monetary policy all that is needed to deal with it. Now that inflation is the least of our worries, and the limitations of monetary policy are evident, a significant change in mindset and a new range of policy instruments are surely needed.

    We should in any case temper any sympathy we might feel for our policy-makers with the thought that it is their mistakes that created many of our problems in the first place. Our 2008 recession – well-entrenched by the beginning of 2008 – was the end result of decades of ideologically-driven policy errors that had eventually run us into the buffers. Those mistakes had seen the average New Zealand family end up $80,000 a year worse off than their Australian counterparts, and even that disastrous performance was achieved at the expense of massive overseas borrowings, a huge trade deficit, and the fire sale of many of our national assets.

    It is from this unfortunate starting-point that we now have to face the threat of world recession. The measures put in place just to deal with our own recession were hardly adequate for the task, but they certainly need reinforcing now if we are to ward off the worst effects of the global downturn as well.

    That is not to say that the steps that have been taken are not welcome, as far as they go. The cuts in interest rates may be far too late but are better late than never. Tax cuts will also help but fall far short of what is needed and, according to most observers, are less effective than public spending in stimulating economic activity. The promise of a rolling programme of public investment in infrastructure is certainly welcome, though it seems to be proceeding on a somewhat leisurely, drip-feed timetable and to be just tracking along in the wake of a crisis that is relentlessly gathering pace.

    Worryingly, there seems to be more concern in some quarters about allowing the government deficit to grow than with the increased and substantial fiscal stimulus the economy now needs. But that is to put ideology ahead of practicality. The whole point of the last decade of reducing government debt was surely to equip us to use public spending to stimulate the economy when it proved necessary. The prudence of past governments has meant that, in that respect, we are better placed than most to use government spending to help counteract recession – and that, rather than the size of the government’s deficit, is surely our top current priority.

    We are of course constantly assured by Treasury that the size of the fiscal stimulus already delivered to the economy is very large by international standards. But that assertion was made last year, before the crisis truly hit and before other countries had made responses that dwarf ours by comparison. The stimulus so far provided (including tax cuts and spending yet to materialise) is estimated to equate to 2.8% of GDP. But in the US and the UK (where huge sums have also been spent on bailing out the banks), packages the equivalent of several multiples of our own have been put in place, and our response is of course also much smaller than the fiscal stimulus announced by the Rudd government in Australia. These countries have, in other words, done much more than we have, from a starting-point that was much less difficult; they were not already in recession, as we were, when the global downturn struck.

    It is time to forsake ideological purity (for whatever that is worth) and focus on what pragmatically needs to be done. On top of our domestic woes, we now need to address a desperate international situation that is unprecedented in most people’s lifetimes. If jobs and businesses are to be saved, we will need more than occasional, case-by-case interventions. We must recognise that, if bank lending and credit creation are falling back, the case for the government to fill the gap with programmed credit for investment is overwhelming.

    The Prime Minister, at least, seems aware that more needs to be done, and that spending on infrastructure is the way to go. We must hope that this week’s summit – and his own advisers – will agree with him.

    Bryan Gould

    19 February 2009
    This updated version of an earlier article was published in the NZ Herald on 26 February

  • Wanted – Directors Who Think

    As the global recession gathers force and pace, spare a thought for our policy-makers. They are trying to confront a crisis whose dimensions they have only belatedly begun to recognise and to do so with policy instruments that the rest of the world has already rejected as irrelevant.

    Relying on monetary policy may have just about seemed adequate when we slipped into our own home-grown recession at the beginning of last year. Notwithstanding that it was that self-same monetary policy that had driven us into recession in the first place, our economic gurus at the Treasury and the Reserve Bank seemed satisfied that a few touches on the monetary tiller, plus the tax cuts offered as an election sweetener by both major parties, would be enough to turn the economy around.

    They were of course shaken, as were we all, by the sight of the world’s financial establishment coming apart. But they comforted themselves, no doubt, with the thought that our own banks and financial institutions (give or take a few dozen finance companies and a couple of billion dollars of people’s savings) were not under threat.

    It has taken them a long time to understand that the global crisis is no longer – or at least isn’t just – a financial crisis. As the unbelievable greed and stupidity of the world’s banking institutions have produced their inevitable consequences for the real economies in which most people live and work, we are now faced with a global economy in which consumer spending, jobs and investment are in free fall – with inevitable pain for a small, vulnerable, export-dependent economy like our own.

    In these circumstances, cuts in interest rates – while welcome at the margins, if only to help redress what would otherwise be an even greater than usual interest rate differential for us – simply will not cut the mustard. Relying on monetary policy in the face of a full-scale, real-live, worldwide recession driven by falling demand is like pushing on a piece of string. While the rest of the world has experienced a miraculous overnight conversion to Keynesian economics and the merits of fiscal stimulus, we are still tracking along as though our own comparatively small-scale recession is all that we have to worry about.

    So, while countries like the US and the UK have put in place huge fiscal packages to try to ensure that their economies do not freeze over altogether, (and that is in addition to the huge sums they have spent on shoring up their banking sectors), and while Kevin Rudd has announced a massive public spending programme in Australia, we continue to rely on taxing and spending decisions that were essentially taken in mid-2008 when they might or might not have been adequate to arrest our own mini-recession.

    As far as further fiscal stimulus to address the reality of global recession is concerned, we are apparently relying on a drip-feed of small measures whose main purpose seems to be to show that our policy-makers are at least doing something, however ineffectual. We are constantly assured that – at just 2.8% of GDP – our fiscal stimulus is among the largest in the OECD. We can only conclude that this calculation was made before the British, American and Australian packages – at several multiples greater than 2.8% – were actually announced.

    Such a cautious approach overlooks the very real point that what is now needed from governments is not just a boost to spending that is appropriate in dollars-and-cents terms, but that also helps to turn round the psychology of deflation and recession.

    One of the main lessons of Keynesian economics, after all, is that economics is above all a behavioural science. Economic issues have a nasty habit of springing off the page of the textbook or the latest mathematical model and biting real people in ways that the theorists do not predict. The danger of deflation is that it feeds upon itself – exactly what it is doing now. The more people take individual decisions to protect themselves against hard times, the more they ensure that those hard times will get even harder.

    As Robert J. Samuelson has argued, we are now entering that phase of the recession where people begin to respond to the “wealth effect”. Just as rising equity in their homes and continuing job security encourage people to go out to spend, so they jam on the brakes when house prices fall and unemployment rises. Samuelson calculates that for every dollar’s fall in perceived wealth, people reduce their spending by 5 cents, and that is enough to build in to the economy a massive deflationary impetus.

    An important part of government’s role, in other words, is to show everyone that effective, immediate, large-scale action is being taken – action that will put more money in people’s pockets and give them the confidence to go out and spend it. If we can’t or won’t do that, we might as well all hunker down and prepare for the worst.

    So, what should our policy-makers be doing? The first thing they should do is to throw their ideological baggage out of the window and make a pragmatic response to the practical situation that confronts us. They should acknowledge that their first priority is to get the economy moving; there are of course limits as to how far increased spending should push the government deficit, but we are far from having reached them yet. What, after all, was the point of ten years of reducing the government’s debt if we are not allowed to use the fruits of that prudence when they are needed?

    The second thing they should do is take a more clear-eyed and realistic view than they have managed so far of the true dimensions of our problems. That is far from an easy task. They now have to add to their earlier preoccupation with our domestic woes, which now include sharply rising unemployment and a nose-diving housing market, with the much greater international threat posed by collapsing export markets, falling commodity prices, more expensive imports, and more difficult and expensive international credit.

    Drawing up a list of our pluses and minuses shows how difficult a calculation of our true position really is. On the one hand, there are factors at work that offer some better prospects for growth. The cut in interest rates will certainly help those with mortgages by leaving more purchasing power in their pockets. Those looking for bank loans will benefit, provided they are willing to borrow in the first place. And lower interest rates have partially corrected the dollar’s over-valuation that was the single most damaging aspect of our monetary policy over more than two decades. At least our exporters can now approach export markets without both hands tied behind their backs.

    The world recession has seen a marked fall in oil prices (only partially reflected so far in prices at the pumps), so that disposable income is no longer so greatly absorbed by fuel costs. The world will still need food, so that our commodity prices, though having fallen back from their peak, may still stay comparatively strong. Reduced emigration and a flow of returning ex-pats might help to stabilise the housing market and add a margin to retail sales. Tax cuts, those delivered last October and those yet to come in April, will help consumer spending. The relatively small public spending programme so far announced might still save a few thousand jobs. And tight conditions in retailing should help to put a lid on price increases.

    But for every glimmer of hope, there is a weightier reason for apprehension. Domestic interest rates might come down further, but the interest rate differential between us and other countries will be largely unaffected, and the high proportion of domestic lending that is financed from overseas will soon reflect the greater cost of borrowing from overseas sources. And, as we have already seen, mortgage rates don’t necessarily fall as fast as the OCR, and even when they do, they don’t necessarily revive a dying housing market. Samuelson’s “wealth effect” will be felt with a vengeance.

    Commodity prices are bound to fall further, as the recession gathers pace, and we will see more of what the reduced Fonterra payout has already shown us – a multi-billion deflationary shock to our total economy since the heady days of 2007. As well, our food products tend to be at the higher end of the market which will probably be more vulnerable to reduced purchasing power in overseas markets. And although the inflationary effects of a lower dollar are consistently overstated, there is no doubt that there will be upward pressure on import prices, including petrol prices.

    Tight retail conditions might rein back price rises, but they will also reduce margins and increase closures and job losses. Higher unemployment, and the fear of more of it, will cut consumer spending. And the whole of this deflationary momentum will be supercharged by the growing impact of what is happening overseas, and particularly in those export markets that matter most to us. Fisher and Paykel’s tribulations are just the start.

    The third requirement is courage. Having focused, without ideological preconceptions, on the job in hand, and having made a clear assessment of the scale of the challenge, we should then look for a response that matches the needs of the moment. So far, that response has been too late and too small.

    Yet, we might perhaps feel a twinge of sympathy for our policy-makers. They face the most difficult economic situation of modern times. And, like each individual, and especially each individual company and company board, they face the perennial challenge posed by recession – that the actions that each individual are most likely to take in their own interests are precisely the actions that will intensify the recession.

    It is at this point that we need to be strong-minded and to be clear about who is responsible for what. No one should be dissuaded from thinking about the wider picture, but the responsibility of directors remains primarily to the company whose fortunes they help to direct. It is for governments to look after the economy as a whole and to work for an economic context in which companies can thrive.

    That is not to say that directors need do nothing in this regard. While keeping their eyes firmly fixed on the interests of their own companies, they should not shy away from expressing a view about how economic policy should be developed. This is a time for business leadership with the courage and wisdom to understand the context in which they are operating. For too long, directors have gone along with a view of how economies should be managed which we can now see was mistaken and which has led us to our current plight. We need business leaders who are less preoccupied with ideology and more aware of the real world.

    We must never again make those egregious mistakes that were scarcely ever challenged by business leaders over two or three decades. It is not the case that markets work best if they are left unregulated. It is not the case that governments should be kept at arm’s length from economic policy. It is not the case that growing imbalances in the global economy have no adverse consequences. It is not the case that economies need only small technical adjustments of monetary policy and that fiscal policy is too risky and too interventionist to be used. Nor is it the case that the important decisions in the economy can be safely entrusted to bankers who will pursue the wider interest rather than their own.

    We need, in other words, boardrooms that will not only do their best for their companies but will also make a proper and thoughtful contribution to the wider public debate. There is no shortage of business leaders who do precisely that. They are directors who do not necessarily follow the herd by adopting the prevailing orthodoxy. They do their own thinking. We need more of them.

  • When The Facts Change

    “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Such was John Maynard Keynes’ famous riposte to a critic who accused him of changing his mind about monetary policy during the Great Depression.

    A similar response might be made today to those, like Don Brash, who maintain that they have been right all along, when the facts say otherwise. And there must be a suspicion that the Treasury are similarly afflicted – more concerned to maintain ideological purity than to do what the situation requires.

    If we were feeling generous, we might feel a twinge of sympathy for our policy-makers. After trying and failing to use monetary policy to grapple with our own home-grown recession throughout 2008, they now have to meet the new challenge of a world that has changed and to do so with a monetary policy instrument that now seems even less relevant.

    What, after all, is now the goal of monetary policy? For decades, we have been told that inflation is all that matters and monetary policy all that is needed to deal with it. Now that inflation is the least of our worries, and the limitations of monetary policy are evident, a significant change in mindset and a new range of policy instruments are surely needed.

    Any sympathy we might feel should in any case be tempered by the thought that it is those same policy-makers who created many of our problems in the first place. Our 2008 recession – well-entrenched by the beginning of the year – was the end result of decades of ideologically-driven policy mistakes which had eventually run us into the buffers. Those mistakes had seen the average New Zealand family end up $80,000 a year worse off than their Australian counterparts, and even that disastrous performance was achieved at the expense of massive overseas borrowings, a huge trade deficit, and the fire sale of many of our national assets.

    It is from this calamitous starting-point that we now face the threat of world recession. The measures put in place just to deal with our own recession were hardly adequate for the task, but they certainly need reinforcing now if we are to ward off the worst effects of the global downturn as well.

    That is not to say that those measures are not welcome, as far as they go. The cuts in interest rates may be far too late but are better late than never. Tax cuts will also help but fall far short of what is needed and, according to most observers, are less effective than public spending in stimulating economic activity. The promise of a rolling programme of public investment in infrastructure is certainly welcome, though it seems to be proceeding on a somewhat leisurely timetable and needs to be decided and implemented soon if it is not to be too late.

    On the other hand, some Ministers seem more worried about allowing the government deficit to grow than with the increased fiscal stimulus the economy now needs. But this is to put ideology ahead of practicality. The whole point of the last decade of reducing government debt was surely to equip us to use public spending to stimulate the economy when it proved necessary. In that respect, the prudence of past governments has meant that we are better placed than most to use government spending to help counteract recession – and that, rather than the size of the government’s deficit, is surely our top current priority. As Keynes insisted, deficits should in any case be measured and evaluated over a period, not in the short term.

    We are of course constantly assured by Treasury that there is no need to worry because the size of the fiscal stimulus already delivered to the economy is very large by international standards. But that assertion needs to be carefully examined. The stimulus so far provided (including tax cuts and spending yet to materialise) is estimated to equate to 2.8% of GDP. This may have seemed adequate when planned last year as a response to our own recession, but as a counteraction to the global crisis it provides only half the stimulus delivered in the US and the UK (where huge sums have also been spent on bailing out the banks), and of course falls well short of the package announced by the Rudd government in Australia. These countries have, in other words, done much more than we have, from a starting-point that was much less difficult than ours; they were not already in recession, as we were, when the global downturn struck.

    What we must recognise, in other words, is that – on top of our domestic woes – we now need to address a desperate international situation that is unprecedented in most people’s lifetimes. Much now depends on the “summit” arranged for 27 February. The Prime Minister seems at least to be aware that more needs to be done, and that spending on infrastructure is the way to go. We must hope that the summit – and his own advisers – agree with him.

    Bryan Gould

    6 February 2009