The Hamilton West by-election was a valuable pointer to the outcome of next year’s general election, according to the Herald (whose relentlessly biased and one-sided news selection, reporting and commentary on a daily basis continue to do us all a disservice and are a blight on our democracy).

But one doesn’t have to be an expert to understand that a by-election is very rarely any such thing. First, the turn-out is usually much lower than in a general election – and that was certainly the case in Hamilton West. What that means is that we have no means of knowing how those who did not vote will vote in a general election.

Secondly, by-elections are often dominated and decided by single issues. In Hamilton West, the by-election was made necessary by the self-centred behaviour of a defecting (former) Labour MP. It would be surprising if Gaurav Sharma’s decision to throw his toys out of the playpen had not had some impact on voter behaviour and intentions, in one direction or another.

Thirdly, a by-election takes place in a vacuum of its own. The voters are asked to focus on local and current issues and candidates, without regard to wider issues. The only political party (as opposed to individuals) they can have in view is the current government.

In a general election, however, they are asked to compare an actual government with a would-be government. The choice they have to make requires a quite different thought process. They are no longer making a judgment – favourable or otherwise – of a known quantity, but are assessing the comparative competence of a new pretender to office.

Before we, (or the Herald), presume to count our chickens, let us wait for a general election campaign, in which voters across the country can make a judgment, not just of one political party but of several, including one led by a political novice whose lack of experience and capacity for misjudgment are becoming legendary.

The most recent census returns in the UK and in New Zealand show that the majority of people, in both countries, now have no religious belief.

That necessarily gives rise to the question – in the absence of divine direction, where do people now look to find moral guidance? My most recent book, What Does It Mean To Be Human? (available in all good bookshops) is my attempt to answer that question. Check it out.

It is hard to take seriously the voices of those currently asserting that Brexit has come with a considerable economic cost. Where were those voices at the very beginning of what became the Brexit saga, when we were assured that membership of what was then the Common Market would produce great economic benefits to the UK?

There were some of us who warned at the outset that paying twice – as both taxpayers and consumers – for expensive Common Agricultural Policy food, while at the same time closing our market to efficiently and cheaply produced food from the Commonwealth, and opening our manufacturing industry up to tariff-free competition from German manufacturing was a recipe for disaster. We also declined to accept the constant assurances that there was no intention or possibility of the Common Market metamorphosing into a European super-state.

What a pity that those now happy to make a conclusive and damning judgment of Brexit should have stayed silent while the whole imbroglio was developing!

Poor Christopher Luxon. His lack of political experience (and judgment) is constantly being highlighted – not least by his recent foray into the treatment of child criminality.

So keen was he to draw attention to his assertion that “Labour is soft on crime” that he was prepared to run the risk of being disowned by experts in the field. He was unwise enough to resurrect a proposal for “boot camps” for young offenders that has a history of failing and that he should have known would be rejected by those who know more on the subject than he does.

The episode demonstrates the pressure he is under to score a goal or two. It also shows that he is having to watch more than one competitor.

It is one thing to contend with Labour for support (especially when the polls suggest that Labour is making ground), but political life is not as simple as that. Luxon has to take account not only of those voters who will stay loyal to Labour; he also has to watch out for his rival to his right. He cannot afford to leak support to Act by being out-flanked on the right.

He must be thinking, over the last few days, how much simpler it was to run a commercial airline than it is to deal with the constant cross-currents of politics.

I have a new book being published this month. It is entitled “What Does It Mean to Be Human?” and is an attempt to arrive at a moral code of our own making – one that will serve all our interests and those of other creatures and of the planet – using our own knowledge, experience, emotional intelligence and reasoning ability, without reference to the supposed benefit of divine guidance.

The publishers are offering a 25% discount on the paperback price in the pre-order period before the publication date at the end of the month. The discount is available at www.austinmacauley.com/book/what-does-it-mean-be-human and requires the use of the code Author 1022. Happy reading!