Bonuses – for Good or Ill?
Eyebrows and ire were both raised by last week’s reports of the huge bonuses – contributing to even bigger remuneration packages – paid out to the executives of some of our leading companies, even when those companies had seen profit margins fall substantially. Nothing more strongly suggests that the lessons that seemed such a clear legacy of the global financial meltdown just a few brief months ago have been quickly and conveniently forgotten.
Even the justification offered by the spokesman for the Institute of Directors was redolent of a distinctly pre-recession complacency. “If we are to attract the talent we need,” he solemnly intoned, “we have to pay salaries to match those paid in the rest of the world.” It’s a wonderful thing, the global economy; it requires us to push up New Zealand’s top salaries in an attempt to match world levels, but at the same time requires wages for ordinary employees to be driven down to the benchmarks set by the lowest-wage economies.
The supposed need to pay a top executive 100 times the income of his skilled employees is a self-serving nonsense produced by a small charmed circle who claim the right to set their own (and their mates’) pay rates. But the bonus culture which seems to have emerged unscathed from the recession is objectionable, not just because it produces scandalous inequities in terms of total remuneration, but because it is seriously deficient as a means of producing better economic performance.
The payment of very large “performance” bonuses is, we should note, a feature of a peculiarly Anglo-American business culture whose quasi-religious faith in the infallibility of market forces should surely have been dealt a major blow by the implosion of the last year or so. But the case against it rests on sound principle and practice rather than ideological preference.
I have had personal experience from both sides, as an executive and a director, of performance bonus schemes. On the basis of that experience, I believe that they promote attitudes that are the very antithesis of those we need.
The theory is that, if executives have “skin in the game” (or any of the other macho phrases used to justify the practice), they will try harder and produce a better performance. The reality is, however, that bonus schemes encourage the very deficiencies which have bedevilled our economic performance over a long period.
First, they engender a focus on the short-term at the expense of the longer-term health of the enterprise. “Short-termism” is a well recognised affliction of Anglo-American economies; it leads to cost-cutting and profit-taking over a short time horizon as alternatives to what we really need – investment, building new capacity, productivity improvements and strategic perspectives.
Secondly, bonus schemes often distort performance, diverting attention from the issues that should really be addressed in favour of those which happen to be relevant to the bonus. Because many of the factors that determine a company’s performance are beyond the capacity of an individual executive to influence – macro-economic conditions are the most obvious example – they either have to be discounted, or applied even though it is clearly irrational to do so.
The result is that boards usually either make a broad judgment as to what constitutes good performance in given circumstances, without reference to the factors (like a recession) that have really determined performance, thereby destroying the fiction that performance evaluation is based on measurable and accurate data, or they substitute for their own judgment a set of criteria which at least have the merit of being measurable, even if they are seriously irrelevant.
If they take the first course, the “performance” that is allegedly being measured all too often becomes nothing more than a reflection of whether or not the board feels strong enough to risk alienating the executive by withholding a bonus or part of it. That seems to have been the story of the bonuses reported here over the past week or so.
If they take the second course, and pretend to be measuring performance accurately according to quantitative criteria, the danger is that the executive focuses on the bonus criteria, even if they are barely relevant to any sensible judgment of good performance.
The issue of whether or not a bonus is paid, and how much, can also be destructive of a good relationship between governance and management. Some boards will purport to be able to measure performance to the last percentage point. An executive who has done well may well feel cheated if the board says that only 75% of a bonus is to be paid. And if the bonus scheme extends to a larger group of executives, the issue of who gets what percentage of bonuses (bearing in mind that such information rarely stays confidential) can engender feelings of resentment and unfairness – hardly conducive to good human resource management.
There is a much better practice, to be found in better-run economies than our own, which we should emulate. Top executives should be paid a proper rate for the job (and I have no objection to high salaries per se) on the assumption that, having been appointed, they will deliver a satisfactory performance. A less than satisfactory performance should be dealt with as a performance issue. An exceptional performance – above and beyond the call of duty – should be rewarded with a genuine, but one-off, bonus.
This would require many employment contracts to be re-negotiated, not necessarily with a view to bringing total remuneration down, but with the aim of removing many of the deleterious effects of the current practice, and producing more transparent and defensible arrangements. It is up to boards (and shareholders) to take this more sensible approach.
Bryan Gould
30 August 2009
This article was published in the New Zealand Herald on 3 September, and an amended version appeared in the online Guardian on 5 September.
Step Forward Unesco
April in Paris is guaranteed to put a spring in the step of those fortunate enough to be here. Some may think, however, that attending the 181st session of Unesco’s Executive Board is not the best way to take advantage of the world’s most beautiful city.
But, while it is true that Unesco meetings are afflicted by the endless wrangling over procedure and drafting changes that characterise most international organisations, springtime may well be just round the corner – for Unesco, as well as for Paris. While the air is thick with warnings about the impact of the global economic crisis on Unesco projects, particularly in the developing world, there is good reason to think that that same crisis might propel Unesco – representing a quite different view of what is now needed – to the forefront of the global response.
We have, after all, witnessed the sudden demise of a set of beliefs which had placed huge emphasis on man as a purely economic being. For thirty years, we have increasingly handed control of our societies and economies over to those who insisted that all that really mattered was the bottom line, market forces, the profit motive. Economic man was, it was argued, all there was. The only way to extract maximum benefit for and from economic man was to entrust his future and wellbeing to the high priests of economic science – those lords of creation who alone understood the arcane secrets of what made economies tick and who required a heavy tribute, as bankers, financiers, and market manipulators, to reward them for their scarce and valuable skills.
We now know the outcomes produced by the exercise of those skills. The world’s economies have been laid waste by the global crisis – so much for that famed and hugely rewarded expertise – but the crisis itself was preceded by a growing recognition of the price to be paid for letting markets rip. Global warming, pollution, the threat to natural resources, a growing gap between rich and poor, have all been forerunners and storm signals of what is now revealed as the collapse of the era of economic man.
The time has come, surely, to recognise that our future as a species – perhaps even the future of our planet – now depends on more than the narrow, market-driven measurement of GDP. Economic recovery is certainly a priority, but it is a necessary rather than sufficient condition for a better future. We must now pay attention to wider questions – what is important to us as individuals and in our communities, what makes us who we are, what it means to be human. We need a new and more respectful relationship with the natural world in which we live and a greater hunger to understand and live harmoniously with our neighbours.
Step forward Unesco. The oldest UN agency, during the era of economic man, has been pushed to the sidelines. Its emphasis on education, on the physical, human and social sciences, on culture and language, on the sustainable use of natural resources, as the mainsprings of human development and wellbeing, has seemed quaintly old-fashioned in an era of aggressive profit-seeking. But a re-statement of those goals and values is now overdue. We can now assert, amidst the wreckage created by economic man, that we are more than economic agents, and that Unesco’s preoccupations point the way to a more complete and empowering sense of where our future lies.
It is after all the world’s billions who will pay for the current mess with their jobs, their homes, their taxes, perhaps even their lives. It is their interests – not those of banks and financial institutions – that should take centre stage. The focus of governments around the world on shoring up those institutions with taxpayers’ money may well be necessary in the short term, but an agenda based on the integrated wellbeing of people and societies will be needed if we are to restore the life chances of those ravaged by economic crisis.
There are, in other words, better ways of spending our money. If we want a decisive break with the mistakes of the immediate past, we should be investing for more than a short-term financial return. Our focus should be on strategically planned programmes for education in countries where schooling is still at a premium, in the strengthening of cultural identities to give people confidence to understand who they are and how they can play a constructive role in the world, in projects to protect and develop sustainable supplies of fresh water.
An agency like Unesco has never been funded to undertake these activities itself. Its current budget is pathetically small, and – in the current crisis – likely to get smaller. But, with proper financing, Unesco can provide the intellectual leadership and strategic direction to ensure that skills and capabilities that are at present scattered and fragmented across the globe can be linked and coordinated, so that we get the maximum benefit from what we already have. Unesco’s role is to help us to do better than merely learn what not to do. Agencies like Unesco can help us move forward by providing outcomes that are greater than the sum of their parts.
If these efforts are not made, we will be slower out of crisis and less confident of our future than we should be. With all the talk of trillions being spent on the economic agenda, a tiny fraction of that sum spent on the human agenda would pay rich dividends. That should be the real lesson learned from the demise of economic man.
Bryan Gould
26 April 2009
Bryan Gould chairs the New Zealand National Commission for Unesco.
This article was published in the online Guardian on 28 April.
Wanted – Directors Who Think
As the global recession gathers force and pace, spare a thought for our policy-makers. They are trying to confront a crisis whose dimensions they have only belatedly begun to recognise and to do so with policy instruments that the rest of the world has already rejected as irrelevant.
Relying on monetary policy may have just about seemed adequate when we slipped into our own home-grown recession at the beginning of last year. Notwithstanding that it was that self-same monetary policy that had driven us into recession in the first place, our economic gurus at the Treasury and the Reserve Bank seemed satisfied that a few touches on the monetary tiller, plus the tax cuts offered as an election sweetener by both major parties, would be enough to turn the economy around.
They were of course shaken, as were we all, by the sight of the world’s financial establishment coming apart. But they comforted themselves, no doubt, with the thought that our own banks and financial institutions (give or take a few dozen finance companies and a couple of billion dollars of people’s savings) were not under threat.
It has taken them a long time to understand that the global crisis is no longer – or at least isn’t just – a financial crisis. As the unbelievable greed and stupidity of the world’s banking institutions have produced their inevitable consequences for the real economies in which most people live and work, we are now faced with a global economy in which consumer spending, jobs and investment are in free fall – with inevitable pain for a small, vulnerable, export-dependent economy like our own.
In these circumstances, cuts in interest rates – while welcome at the margins, if only to help redress what would otherwise be an even greater than usual interest rate differential for us – simply will not cut the mustard. Relying on monetary policy in the face of a full-scale, real-live, worldwide recession driven by falling demand is like pushing on a piece of string. While the rest of the world has experienced a miraculous overnight conversion to Keynesian economics and the merits of fiscal stimulus, we are still tracking along as though our own comparatively small-scale recession is all that we have to worry about.
So, while countries like the US and the UK have put in place huge fiscal packages to try to ensure that their economies do not freeze over altogether, (and that is in addition to the huge sums they have spent on shoring up their banking sectors), and while Kevin Rudd has announced a massive public spending programme in Australia, we continue to rely on taxing and spending decisions that were essentially taken in mid-2008 when they might or might not have been adequate to arrest our own mini-recession.
As far as further fiscal stimulus to address the reality of global recession is concerned, we are apparently relying on a drip-feed of small measures whose main purpose seems to be to show that our policy-makers are at least doing something, however ineffectual. We are constantly assured that – at just 2.8% of GDP – our fiscal stimulus is among the largest in the OECD. We can only conclude that this calculation was made before the British, American and Australian packages – at several multiples greater than 2.8% – were actually announced.
Such a cautious approach overlooks the very real point that what is now needed from governments is not just a boost to spending that is appropriate in dollars-and-cents terms, but that also helps to turn round the psychology of deflation and recession.
One of the main lessons of Keynesian economics, after all, is that economics is above all a behavioural science. Economic issues have a nasty habit of springing off the page of the textbook or the latest mathematical model and biting real people in ways that the theorists do not predict. The danger of deflation is that it feeds upon itself – exactly what it is doing now. The more people take individual decisions to protect themselves against hard times, the more they ensure that those hard times will get even harder.
As Robert J. Samuelson has argued, we are now entering that phase of the recession where people begin to respond to the “wealth effect”. Just as rising equity in their homes and continuing job security encourage people to go out to spend, so they jam on the brakes when house prices fall and unemployment rises. Samuelson calculates that for every dollar’s fall in perceived wealth, people reduce their spending by 5 cents, and that is enough to build in to the economy a massive deflationary impetus.
An important part of government’s role, in other words, is to show everyone that effective, immediate, large-scale action is being taken – action that will put more money in people’s pockets and give them the confidence to go out and spend it. If we can’t or won’t do that, we might as well all hunker down and prepare for the worst.
So, what should our policy-makers be doing? The first thing they should do is to throw their ideological baggage out of the window and make a pragmatic response to the practical situation that confronts us. They should acknowledge that their first priority is to get the economy moving; there are of course limits as to how far increased spending should push the government deficit, but we are far from having reached them yet. What, after all, was the point of ten years of reducing the government’s debt if we are not allowed to use the fruits of that prudence when they are needed?
The second thing they should do is take a more clear-eyed and realistic view than they have managed so far of the true dimensions of our problems. That is far from an easy task. They now have to add to their earlier preoccupation with our domestic woes, which now include sharply rising unemployment and a nose-diving housing market, with the much greater international threat posed by collapsing export markets, falling commodity prices, more expensive imports, and more difficult and expensive international credit.
Drawing up a list of our pluses and minuses shows how difficult a calculation of our true position really is. On the one hand, there are factors at work that offer some better prospects for growth. The cut in interest rates will certainly help those with mortgages by leaving more purchasing power in their pockets. Those looking for bank loans will benefit, provided they are willing to borrow in the first place. And lower interest rates have partially corrected the dollar’s over-valuation that was the single most damaging aspect of our monetary policy over more than two decades. At least our exporters can now approach export markets without both hands tied behind their backs.
The world recession has seen a marked fall in oil prices (only partially reflected so far in prices at the pumps), so that disposable income is no longer so greatly absorbed by fuel costs. The world will still need food, so that our commodity prices, though having fallen back from their peak, may still stay comparatively strong. Reduced emigration and a flow of returning ex-pats might help to stabilise the housing market and add a margin to retail sales. Tax cuts, those delivered last October and those yet to come in April, will help consumer spending. The relatively small public spending programme so far announced might still save a few thousand jobs. And tight conditions in retailing should help to put a lid on price increases.
But for every glimmer of hope, there is a weightier reason for apprehension. Domestic interest rates might come down further, but the interest rate differential between us and other countries will be largely unaffected, and the high proportion of domestic lending that is financed from overseas will soon reflect the greater cost of borrowing from overseas sources. And, as we have already seen, mortgage rates don’t necessarily fall as fast as the OCR, and even when they do, they don’t necessarily revive a dying housing market. Samuelson’s “wealth effect” will be felt with a vengeance.
Commodity prices are bound to fall further, as the recession gathers pace, and we will see more of what the reduced Fonterra payout has already shown us – a multi-billion deflationary shock to our total economy since the heady days of 2007. As well, our food products tend to be at the higher end of the market which will probably be more vulnerable to reduced purchasing power in overseas markets. And although the inflationary effects of a lower dollar are consistently overstated, there is no doubt that there will be upward pressure on import prices, including petrol prices.
Tight retail conditions might rein back price rises, but they will also reduce margins and increase closures and job losses. Higher unemployment, and the fear of more of it, will cut consumer spending. And the whole of this deflationary momentum will be supercharged by the growing impact of what is happening overseas, and particularly in those export markets that matter most to us. Fisher and Paykel’s tribulations are just the start.
The third requirement is courage. Having focused, without ideological preconceptions, on the job in hand, and having made a clear assessment of the scale of the challenge, we should then look for a response that matches the needs of the moment. So far, that response has been too late and too small.
Yet, we might perhaps feel a twinge of sympathy for our policy-makers. They face the most difficult economic situation of modern times. And, like each individual, and especially each individual company and company board, they face the perennial challenge posed by recession – that the actions that each individual are most likely to take in their own interests are precisely the actions that will intensify the recession.
It is at this point that we need to be strong-minded and to be clear about who is responsible for what. No one should be dissuaded from thinking about the wider picture, but the responsibility of directors remains primarily to the company whose fortunes they help to direct. It is for governments to look after the economy as a whole and to work for an economic context in which companies can thrive.
That is not to say that directors need do nothing in this regard. While keeping their eyes firmly fixed on the interests of their own companies, they should not shy away from expressing a view about how economic policy should be developed. This is a time for business leadership with the courage and wisdom to understand the context in which they are operating. For too long, directors have gone along with a view of how economies should be managed which we can now see was mistaken and which has led us to our current plight. We need business leaders who are less preoccupied with ideology and more aware of the real world.
We must never again make those egregious mistakes that were scarcely ever challenged by business leaders over two or three decades. It is not the case that markets work best if they are left unregulated. It is not the case that governments should be kept at arm’s length from economic policy. It is not the case that growing imbalances in the global economy have no adverse consequences. It is not the case that economies need only small technical adjustments of monetary policy and that fiscal policy is too risky and too interventionist to be used. Nor is it the case that the important decisions in the economy can be safely entrusted to bankers who will pursue the wider interest rather than their own.
We need, in other words, boardrooms that will not only do their best for their companies but will also make a proper and thoughtful contribution to the wider public debate. There is no shortage of business leaders who do precisely that. They are directors who do not necessarily follow the herd by adopting the prevailing orthodoxy. They do their own thinking. We need more of them.
Universities “More Than Just Agents of Economic Development”
A former New Zealand vice-chancellor has cautioned that universities must be more than mere instruments of economic growth and development. Bryan Gould, former vice-chancellor of the University of Waikato and current chair of the board of the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology, issued his warning in opening the University of Auckland’s winter lecture series, “Challenges for research in modern academia”, earlier this week.
Calling on universities to be vigilant not just in defending themselves against familiar threats, Mr Gould said, “They must also be alert to new challenges, which sometimes come in unfamiliar guises.” Expanding on the theme, he added that the danger today is not so much that universities are threatened by direct, hostile, and deliberate assaults by governments or the private sector, though it also must not be assumed that these were things of the past.
“The threat arises from the growing importance that universities are increasingly invited to assume in promoting economic growth and development,” said Mr Gould, adding that commentators from across the political spectrum and from all parts of the economy have agreed that universities are essential agents of economic change.
“Our economic future is increasingly said to depend on the research effort undertaken by our universities and by their role in producing graduates with the skills needed to promote economic growth,” he said. “This view is naturally congenial to the universities, since it affirms their value to society and appears to guarantee at least an approximation of adequate funding. But the argument comes with an unstated but potentially damaging downside, that this role is what universities are essentially about and that it is only to the extent that they fulfil that expectation that they will be supported and funded,” he said.
Pointing to the dangers of the approach, he continued, “If it is asserted by political or business leaders that the universities have failed to come up with the required outcomes – that the economy is, for example, short of particular kinds of graduates or is handicapped by the failure to undertake particular kinds of research projects – then continued support and funding for the universities will be placed at risk.”
He said that the problem, then, is that universities would be tempted, so as to maintain continued public support and funding, to go along with the inviting but dangerous assumption that their only true value is as instruments of economic change. “In doing so, they would accept a barely recognised but increasingly damaging constraint on their freedom to pursue knowledge – and we would have significantly misread our own intellectual history,” he concluded.
A Fibre Optic Network – Twenty Years Earlier
One of the leading issues in today’s New Zealand news is the desirability of establishing a nationwide fibre optic cable network so that high-speed broadband can be extended to the whole country.
The National Party has proposed a NZ$1.5 billion investment; the Labour government has promised its own plan within a few weeks; and visiting international experts at an IT conference have urged that the whole project should be completed within less than ten years.
The news coverage rang a distant bell with me and prompted me to go back to check my own records. I was able to confirm (it is referred to on page 204 of my autographical Goodbye to All That) that, when I chaired the British Labour Party’s Working Party on the Productive and Competitive Economy in 1988, I had pushed a proposal that a new Labour government should invest in a fibre optic network for the whole of Britain.
I had been supported in that idea by Ken Livingstone (himself recently in the news when he lost the London mayoralty). Although we had got our own way on most of the issues covered by the report we produced, we had been defeated on the fibre optic proposal which apparently seemed too way out for most of my colleagues.
It is interesting to reflect on what might have been if an idea that only now seems to warrant serious consideration and whose advantages are now so widely proclaimed had been acted on twenty years ago. Foresight in politics is not always rewarded.